Transport Infrastructure Connectivity and China–DRC Bilateral Trade Performance: An Empirical Analysis

Authors

  • Banza Mwanabute Sernin Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Jun Zhou Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Yihui Yang Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Nthabeleng Boy Naomi Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Ndotoni Madly Eloïm Rebecca Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Otoka Niabanga Dania Madeleina Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China
  • Ntumba Mbala Israel Department of Transportation Engineering, Huai’an university, Huai’an 223001, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/e4pkwm31

Keywords:

China–Africa trade, Belt and Road Initiative, Infrastructure quality, Gravity model, DRC, Panel data, Bilateral trade flows

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between transport infrastructure connectivity and bilateral trade performance between China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the period 2000–2023. Employing a gravity model augmented with infrastructure quality indices, panel data fixed-effects estimations, and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, we provide robust empirical evidence that improvements in road density, port efficiency, and multimodal connectivity significantly increase bilateral trade flows. Using provincial-level panel data and an instrumental variable (IV) strategy based on historical colonial transport networks as an instrument for contemporary infrastructure quality, our baseline estimates indicate that a 10% increase in infrastructure connectivity raises bilateral trade by 6.8–9.4%, with effects persisting over a 2–3 year horizon. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the trade-enhancing effects are most pronounced for manufactured goods and mining outputs, consistent with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) sector-specific investment patterns. Our findings survive a battery of robustness checks including alternative infrastructure measures, synthetic control methods, and spatial error corrections. The results carry important policy implications for infrastructure-led development strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Published

02-04-2026

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026)

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

Sernin, B. M., Zhou, J., Yang, Y., Naomi, N. B., Rebecca, N. M. E., Madeleina, O. N. D., & Israel, N. M. (2026). Transport Infrastructure Connectivity and China–DRC Bilateral Trade Performance: An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of World Economic Research, 1(2), 88-95. https://doi.org/10.54097/e4pkwm31